BALLON D’OR 2024: RODRI, BELLINGHAM, CARVAJAL… THE BAROMETER OF THE FAVORITES AFTER THE END OF THE SEASON

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With the Euro and the Copa America over, speculation is rife as to who the favourites for the next Ballon d’Or will be awarded on 28 October 2024. Some have scored points, others have lost them.

The die is cast. After the Euro and Copa America finals , the 2023-2024 season has definitively lowered the curtain, putting on hold the performances of each and every one in the race for the Ballon d’Or. For the third year in a row, the award is given on the basis of the results of the season rather than the calendar year – between August 1, 2023 and July 31, 2024. The ceremony will take place on October 28 and the nominees will be announced on September 4. While 30 names will be announced, some are already standing out for the final victory.

Rodri, the new favorite?

English champion, winner of the Club World Cup and the European Super Cup with Manchester City, the midfielder completed his collection by winning the Euro with La Roja, a competition in which he was named best player . Despite only one defeat (excluding penalty shootouts) in 52 games with the Citizens, Rodri could pay for being indecisive in front of goal (9 goals in 50 games). However, these are honourable statistics for a defensive midfielder, who could be the first since Luka Modric (2018) to break the hegemony of the attackers.

“I hope a Spaniard wins it, because I think Spanish football deserves a Ballon d’Or (…) I try to give my best to win collectively,” said the main player in the mixed zone after the Euro final. Because while it is true that the women’s team monopolizes the Women’s Ballon d’Or (three consecutive victories in the five editions), Spain has still been waiting for a recipient among the men since… Luis Suarez in 1960.

Bellingham and the Euro thorn in the side

For his first season in the colours of Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham has put everyone in agreement . Decisive from his debut (23 goals, 13 assists in 42 matches in all competitions with the Merengue), the English international has also filled his trophy cabinet (La Liga, Champions League) and offered memorable moments to the Madrid supporters.

A big favourite for the Ballon d’Or before the Euros, the former Dortmund player saw his stock fall due to a disappointing competition, marked only by his flash of brilliance against Slovakia in the round of 16. Frustrated after the Three Lions’ new failure in the final where he provided an assist for Cole Palmer’s goal, Bellingham may have drawn a line under the supreme prize with this setback against La Roja.

Carvajal, the most successful

On the other hand, he is a more than credible candidate to win. At 32, Dani Carvajal has won all the major trophies of the season, whether with Real (La Liga, Champions League) or the national team (Euro). The Spanish press also makes him their favorite for the final victory to repair the “injustice” experienced by Andrés Iniesta, world champion in 2010 but only 2nd in an award won by Lionel Messi. He would then be the fourth defender to win the Ballon d’Or, after Franz Beckenbauer (1972, 1976), Matthias Sammer (1996) and Fabio Cannavaro (2006). And the first full-back.

Outsiders who start from further away

A credible candidate for the Ballon d’Or in the same way as his teammate at Real Madrid Jude Bellingham, Vinicius was expected at the Copa America after having walked on the Champions League (5 assists, 6 goals, including one in the final). But like his compatriot Rodrygo , the early elimination of Brazil at the quarter-final stage makes them lose credit.

For their part, Harry Kane (44 goals in 45 matches with Bayern Munich), Erling Haaland (38 goals in 45 matches with Manchester City) and Kylian Mbappé (44 goals in 48 matches with PSG) have smashed the counters with their respective clubs but their performances in the national team remain a handicap. Haaland did not play in the Euro, while the captain of the Three Lions and that of the Blues went through the competition like a shadow despite the results of their nation (final and semi-final).

Now retired since Germany’s elimination in the quarter-finals of the Euro, Toni Kroos could be well placed in the final ranking of the Ballon d’Or . From there to aiming for the first place? The midfielder is starting from a long way off, despite a high-flying last season with Real Madrid.

Finally, it is difficult not to mention Lionel Messi in connection with the Ballon d’Or. The defending champion and the most decorated player (8), the Argentinian got back into the race after his victory in the Copa America, where he came out injured and in tears on Sunday evening. But the fact of playing in MLS (25 goals, 16 assists in 29 matches), a “minor” championship, just like Cristiano Ronaldo (44 goals in 45 matches with Al-Nassr) in Saudi Arabia, clearly works against them.