We are back: My 2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 is officially here, and the excitement is through the roof in my second post-free agency mock draft as the calendar has flipped to April. And with a new month, comes a new mock draft WITH TRADES.
As noted in my magnum opus: NFL Draft Needs for Every Team Post-Free Agency (2024 Fantasy Football), NFL teams’ needs have changed dramatically since the 2024 free agency period. And although it seems like NFL Free Agency will never actually come to an end, we must trudge forward with the release of my latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft with the initial free agency frenzy in the rearview.
Let’s dive in!
2024 NFL Mock Draft
1) Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
Now currently listed at -4000 to -5000 odds to be the No. 1 overall pick, USC’s Caleb Williams looks like the next coming of Patrick Mahomes. Friendly reminder that Bears GM, Ryan Poles, was the Chiefs former director of college scouting when KC drafted Mahomes in 2017.
With Justin Fields traded to the Steelers, the Bears can shift focus to their new franchise quarterback whom they will select No. 1 overall. And it’s hard to argue against Williams’ great landing spot with the weapons he has at his disposal between D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet. And they might not be done, given their ties to some of the top WRs and OTs in this year’s class.
I listed Williams as one of my biggest fantasy football winners in free agency.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
A lot will be made about this potential rookie QB’s fit in new OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, but new GM Adam Peters will likely also have a large input on the future franchise QB. He’s referenced that his new home in Washington is eerily similar to his situation when he first landed in SF back in 2017 – citing the team needs to build through the draft.
All in all, Peters saw the disaster that was Trey Lance during his tenure in SF. He also benefitted greatly from the Brock Purdy selection, claiming that the tape and how well Purdy played the QB position pointed them in drafting the QB.
And although Lance’s rushing ability makes more sense in comparison to Jayden Daniels, I think Maye has more of the boom-or-bust profile that Peters would rather avoid. Injuries withstanding, Daniels offers more of an under-the-radar game manager with strong fundamentals, accuracy and decision-making. Maye has the arm and a size that offers ceilings like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. But that is accompanied by inconsistent play at times, like from what we saw from him in 2022 versus 2023.
The other thing that is overlooked about Daniels – is his experience. 5 seasons of college ball. 55 games. Purdy played 48 games at Iowa State. 2023 Heisman Trophy Winner, Jayden Daniels is the selection at No. 2. With his ability to add value as a rusher and experience with five years under his belt, he can thrive in a familiar Kingsbury system with underrated weapons already entrenched at the skill positions. In 55 games in college, Daniels rushed for over 3,300 yards – 60 rushing yards per game. Last year’s third quarterback selected, Anthony Richardson, also averaged 60 rushing yards per game in the college ranks.
3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye (QB – North Carolina)
New Pats GM Eliot Wolf could very much change the “Patriot way” into the “Packer way” with him now at the helm of the Patriots’ major personnel moves. That would include sitting a QB that might not be ready on Day 1 for long-term gain as the main goal.
Wolf has also been vocal about an updated grading system, citing it will be much closer to what was done in Green Bay. Less about ROLE, and how the Patriots can use said player and more about the actual VALUE of the pick/player etc. Music to my ears as a Patriots fan. Gone are the days of the Patriots “reaching” on a player who likely would have been available much later in the draft. Less overall “reaches” on players that would fit their scheme the best. Draft smarter, not harder.
The Patriots’ current staff features plenty of former Packers coaches from new OC Alex Van Pelt (also was with the Browns) and Ben McAdoo (the Patriots’ new senior assistant).
When it comes to Wolf’s specific influence on the QB atop the Patriots’ draft board, the patient QB approach suggests they won’t be overly concerned about waiting on a younger more inexperienced Drake Maye to be ready.
When asked what he’s looking for in a quarterback, Wolf emphasized intangibles like leadership and body language in addition to strong physical traits.
But even as a Patriots fan who would prefer the team to chase the ceiling of Maye while Jacoby Brissett starts in the meantime, I am much more open to the idea that J.J. McCarthy is in play at No. 3. He also checks off a lot of the same boxes as Maye. However, given Maye’s superior analytical profile, I ultimately side with Maye being the Patriots’ top QB target.
Mayo spoke on Maye’s elite leadership in the interview process and how he has ‘no ceiling.’ The Patriots swung and missed on a QB prospect with a Kirk Cousins-level ceiling the last time around. They won’t make the same mistake twice, even if it takes more patience.
4) Minnesota Vikings (via Arizona Cardinals): J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan)
Whether it’s at pick 11 or as part of a trade-up package, there’s no denying the Vikings’ connection with J.J. McCarthy. He’s currently +105 to be selected by Minnesota. We got the number at +500 back on March 7th in the 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card.
The super-accurate QB posted the third-highest adjusted completion percentage in the nation (80%) in 2023. McCarthy’s throw air time below an expectation also ranked first in the class (-0.13). This is determined by throw distance and the quarterback’s footwork when throwing. Per Sports Info Solutions a lower number is better, because in that case throws of the same distance are taking less time to get to the target.
Given the analytics background of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, I am not surprised that Minnesota has been connected to quarterbacks Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy, both of whom are 21 years old. Age-adjusted production stands out in an analytical analysis.
The top trade-down candidates include the Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers and Falcons. From a betting perspective, the value is long gone with McCarthy to the Vikings. The value is matching players to teams that will trade back. I think it will be the Cardinals that ultimately trade back. In this exercise, Minnesota ships off it’s two firsts for the 4th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
More 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
Here are a few early predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll continue to add our 2024 NFL Mock Drafts leading up to the start of Round 1.
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Thor Nystrom (1.0 | 2.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown (1.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0)
2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
