Caitlin Clark is the most hyped and anticipated rookie to enter the WNBA in at least a generation. Just this year, Victor Wembanyama was in the same position for his first NBA campaign and responded with a historic rookie season that vaulted him near the top of fantasy men’s basketball rankings.
Can Clark have the same level of impact on the fantasy women’s basketball rankings as a rookie?
I say yes. Let’s explore why.
Typically, it is extremely difficult for rookies to step up in competition to a professional league and dominate right away. The physicality and professionalism at the pro level is entirely different than in college, and usually there is an acclimation period that even the greats have to endure. WNBA legends such as Sheryl Swoopes and Diana Taurasi have both famously spoken on that challenge with respect to Clark.
But another WNBA legend, the very recently retired Candace Parker, was able to enter the league as both the Rookie of the Year and the Most Valuable Player in the same season. So we know it can be done.
And if we continue the parallel with Wembanyama, both Wemby and Clark have super powers that are directly translatable even against the greatest players in the world.
For Clark, her super power is the extreme range and accuracy of her 3-point jumper that she can create off the dribble.
Clark set an NCAA record with 538 3-pointers made over her college career, but what makes her so dangerous is the way she sets up her shot and the distance she can shoot from. As the point guard with the ball in her hands every possession, Clark wasn’t just hitting spot-up 3-pointers from the corner the way many 3-point specialists do. Instead, Clark created many of her looks off the dribble.
In a comparison from late 2023 including WNBA star Sabrina Ionescu as well as NBA stars Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard, Clark’s ratio of 1.8 unassisted 3-pointers vs. 1.9 assisted 3-pointers per game (48.6%) was much more similar to Lillard’s (1.99 to 1.97, 50.3%) and Curry’s (2.03 to 2.86, 41.5%) than to Ionescu’s (0.56 to 2.04, 21.5%). This makes Clark’s career 38 3P% even more impressive, marking her as a near-40% shooter off the dribble on shots even the leading 3-point shooter in the WNBA isn’t routinely taking.
In addition, and even more impressively, Clark is extremely accurate from very long distances. The WNBA and NCAA 3-point arc are the same distance, 22 feet 1¾ inches at the top. Clark took more than a quarter of her 3-point attempts (25.8%) from between 25 and 30 feet away from the rim. Ionescu also shoots from long range, with 24.4% of her attempts from that range.
But while Ionescu made 32.9% of her mega-distance attempts, Clark made a whopping 42.9% of those shots through December 2023. Clark was more accurate from extreme distance than her usual 3-point percentage, and more accurate than both Lillard (38.5 3P%) and Curry (42.0%) from that distance.
This very high-volume, very high-accuracy shot that Clark can create off the dribble should translate to the WNBA level immediately and is the foundation for her projected offensive impact. She’ll stretch opposing defenses in ways unique from any of her predecessors, forcing opponents to come all the way out to the logo to defend her.
This not only opens up space in the paint for reigning Rookie of the Year Aliyah Boston and third-year forward NaLyssa Smith to work, but it also gives Clark herself driving lanes. With her defender having to press up on her, Clark should be able to get a step and penetrate to lead to scoring opportunities in the paint as well as assist chances to a group of talented finishers on the Fever.
This is a mechanism that Ionescu has traditionally used to great success, and her 2022 season with the Liberty (before former MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones joined the team) makes a reasonable template for projections for Clark’s rookie season. In 2022, Ionescu finished top-10 in the WNBA in points (17.4 PPG, eighth), assists (6.3 APG, third) and 3-pointers (83 total, tied for fifth).
If Clark gets full usage off the bat, she could challenge for each of those numbers with an even higher ceiling because the threat of her shooting is so much more extreme than even Ionescu’s.
Ionescu is currently seventh in ESPN’s fantasy women’s basketball rankings, a borderline first-round pick in six-team leagues. Clark has more volatility in her projected outcomes as a rookie, but I would draft her in the second round as a player with first-round upside. And I lean toward expecting her to reach that first-round upside right away.
Much like Wemby, I expect Clark to use her super power to outproduce even the lofty hype of her expectations and become one of the top fantasy producers in her sport even as a rookie.
